Sunday, March 16, 2008

Break Out on Close, calculated loss risk

TF H4.
check previous candle close value.
check previous candle high value.
check previous candle low value.

buy at 10pip above previous h4 close, stop loss previous h4 low + 10pip
lots = ? how much margin to risk for the stop loss
if capital $1000, risk 1% of capital, $10, lots=$10/stop loss

or

sell at 10pip bellow previous h4 close, stop loss previous h4 high + 10pip
lots = ? how much margin to risk for the stop loss
if capital $1000, risk 1% of capital, $10, lots=$10/stop loss

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Calculated Loss Risk Break-Out EA

This EA calculated lot size to ensure your risk loss (stop loss value) depending on amount you are willing to lose for each trade opened. Bigger SL smaller lots, smaller SL bigger lots.

Saturday, March 8, 2008

food for thought

Look at the following two scenarios and see for yourself what it means:
· Which would you prefer:
o A sure loss of $9000 or
o A 5% chance of no loss at all and a 95% chance of $10000.
· Which one your prefer:
o Sure gain of 9000 or
o A 95% chance of a $10000 gain plus a 5% chance of no gain at all.
In the first case More than 80% of the public does not pick the sure loss and picks the risky gamble which works out be a bigger loss (9500).
In the second case more than 80% of the population picks up the sure gain which works out to be less profitable (9000) whereas the second option is a gain of 9500.

Lately, market volatility has been cutting through trader's accounts like butter. I know this for a few reasons. First - I have access to information on the dealer side and retail accounts are getting hammered (more than usual ;) Second - I am getting a flood of emails from frustrated traders. Finally - traffic and trading volume from retail traders has dropped off since last Friday. This happens every time the market adjusts like this. Each time is another opportunity to learn a little more.

I find that one of the problems that many traders deal with during these periods is that they try to treat it like the previous trend. Not all volatility is the same. For example, long term traders can have tight stops when the market is trending like crazy but once it is clear that the market is going to get a little wild it is time to reconsider the width of your stops or trading strategy. Otherwise you are putting yourself at a disadvantage.

source: forex factory

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Closer look at some details of H4 YEN Break Out EA


when someone thought that trades were done manually, not by my coding (really pissed me off).

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

EA YEN H4 Break-Out


I rarely trade yen. But with strategy built in this EA, based on break-out range in H4, with reasonable risk for SL and tp 1.5 risk loss, I am trading yen now. GJ EJ and UJ.

It happens that many false break out, yet profit-loss ratio should be able to cover the losses incurred when huge break out really take place.

With 4 different setting to choose from:

1. without tp which will only close using ts or when condition reverse, where EA close profitable trade and open new one in opposite direction.

2. with preset secure profit based on sl calculated.

3. 2 trade opened using either 1 of the above.

4. open trade based on reverse condition of any of the above.